Pipeline forecasting
Forecast the UK public sector procurement pipeline
By the time a tender is published, the requirement is written, the budget is set and the buyer has usually spoken to someone. Forecasting the pipeline means working from the signals that appear before that point — and most of them are published in the open.
In one line: Procurement pipeline forecasting is the practice of predicting which public contracts will come to market, and roughly when, using pipeline notices, planned procurement notices, preliminary market engagement and the expiry dates of contracts already awarded.
The four signals that predict a UK tender
The Procurement Act 2023 added several forward-looking notices to the transparency regime. Used together with award history, they give a usable 12 to 18 month view.
1. Pipeline notices
Contracting authorities with high annual spend must publish a pipeline notice setting out the contracts they expect to bring to market over the coming 18 months, above a value threshold. This is the most direct forward signal in the UK regime — the buyer telling you what is coming.
Coverage is uneven in practice. Pipeline notices bind only the larger authorities, and the level of detail varies, so treat them as a strong signal rather than a full map.
2. Planned procurement notices
A planned procurement notice is an optional early notice that an authority intends to run a procurement. Publishing one can allow the authority to shorten later tendering periods, which gives buyers a real incentive to use it.
For a supplier, a planned procurement notice is a clear signal that a requirement has moved from idea to intent, and that engagement now is still useful.
3. Preliminary market engagement notices
Where an authority engages the market before running a procurement, it publishes a preliminary market engagement notice. This is the point at which suppliers can legitimately shape a requirement — before the specification hardens.
These notices are worth monitoring as closely as tenders. They are the formal invitation to the conversation that everyone says happens informally.
4. Expiry dates on contracts already awarded
The largest source of forward signal is not a forward notice at all. It is the end dates of contracts already in place: every contract that expires is a procurement that has to happen, unless the service is stopping.
Reconstructing this means reading contract details notices across every portal and mapping them onto a timeline. It is the same underlying work as contract expiry tracking, applied across a whole sector rather than one contract.
How bidders build a forward pipeline
The signals are public. The difference between approaches is how much of the assembly you do yourself.
| Approach | What it does well | Where it stops |
|---|---|---|
| Official portalsFind a Tender and the central digital platform | Carry pipeline, planned procurement and preliminary market engagement notices directly, free, at source. | Presented as a stream of individual notices. No aggregation into a buyer-level or sector-level forward view, and nothing that joins them to expiring contracts. |
| Alert aggregatorsTracker Intelligence, Tenders Direct, BidStats and similar | Catch forward notices alongside live tenders, so early signals do not get lost among the noise of daily alerts. | Alert-shaped rather than pipeline-shaped. Good at telling you something published; weaker at telling you what is likely to publish next. |
| Market intelligence platformsTussell, Stotles, Skim | Combine forward notices with award history and expiry dates to model a pipeline, including requirements that have not been announced at all. | Forecasts are inference, not fact. Any platform claiming certainty about an unpublished procurement is overstating what the data supports. |
Where Skim fits
Skim profiles the 847 UK contracting authorities responsible for roughly 80% of SME-addressable public sector spend, plus the 46,000 or so authorities behind them, and forecasts each one's forward pipeline from its own award pattern.
That forecast sits alongside published pipeline and planned procurement notices rather than replacing them, so you can see which parts of the picture are the buyer's stated intent and which are inferred from history.
Forecasting is probabilistic. Skim shows the award pattern behind each prediction and deep-links to the notices it was drawn from, so you can judge the inference rather than accept a score.
The agents behind this
Frequently asked questions
Common questions
Can you really see UK public contracts before they go to tender?
Partly, yes. Pipeline notices, planned procurement notices and preliminary market engagement notices are published before a tender, and the expiry dates of existing contracts indicate which procurements must happen. None of this guarantees timing, but together they give a usable 12 to 18 month view.
What is a pipeline notice under the Procurement Act 2023?
It is a notice in which a higher-spending contracting authority sets out the contracts it expects to bring to market over the coming 18 months, above a value threshold. It is the most direct published signal of what a large buyer intends to procure.
Are pipeline notices published by every authority?
No. The requirement applies to authorities above a spending threshold, and the detail varies between those that do publish. Smaller authorities may publish nothing forward-looking at all, which is why contract expiry data matters as a complementary signal.
How accurate is procurement pipeline forecasting?
Forecasts built on published notices are as accurate as the notices themselves. Forecasts inferred from award history are estimates — useful for prioritising which buyers to engage, not reliable enough to plan a bid calendar to the week. Treat any tool presenting inference as certainty with caution.
What is the difference between a pipeline notice and a planned procurement notice?
A pipeline notice is a periodic, forward look at everything a large authority expects to procure over the next 18 months. A planned procurement notice concerns one specific upcoming procurement, is optional, and can allow the authority to shorten later tendering periods.
Sources
- UK1: the new pipeline notice — Procurement Act 2023 short guide
- Planned procurement notices — Procurement Act 2023 guidance
- Preliminary market engagement — Procurement Act 2023 guidance
- Transparency under the Procurement Act 2023
- Using the central digital platform and Find a Tender
Thresholds and notice requirements change. Check the primary sources above before relying on a figure. Last reviewed 7 August 2026.
Stop reading portals. Start seeing the pipeline.
Skim reads every UK and EU portal hourly and tells you which contracts are worth your time.